Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 221737 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and
  Saturday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain
  with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts,
  and ponding of water on roads.

- Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality
  in the vicinity of the fire this week.

- Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and 
  eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week 
  with record and near-record high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A 598 DAM high pressure center will move over eastern NM today
causing high temperatures to climb a few to 5 degrees there from
Friday's readings. The upper high will remain centered over 
eastern NM on Sunday. Readings today and Sunday will vary around
5-12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages with numerous near-record
high temperatures, and even a few record highs in the east. With 
this forecast package, will issue a Heat Advisory for the 
Tucumcari and Roswell areas this afternoon and early evening. High
clouds moving over Tucumcari at this time shakes confidence there
some, but figure the high pressure center will suppress those as 
it moves overhead enabling temps to reach 105 F across at least 
parts of Quay and Chaves Counties. 

Meanwhile, humidities will trend downward some in most locations
today and Sunday. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms
will favor western and northern areas both days, and high res
models suggest there will probably also be a few cells over 
central areas today. With the decreasing humidities locally heavy
rainfall will be less of a concern today, then even less-so 
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Models generally depict the center of high pressure aloft shifting
over southeast NM Monday, westward over southwest NM Tuesday and
Wednesday, then a little farther west over the southwest NM border
on Thursday and Friday. This will enable record and near-record
high temperatures to continue each afternoon with the most
widespread record high temperatures on Monday. Hazardous heat
looks to return to the Roswell area again on Monday, which should
make the third day in a row with a high temperature of 105 F. A
series of backdoor fronts will increase Gulf moisture over eastern
areas each day during the first half of the work week, while
western humidities continue to trend lower with each day. The
favored location for showers and thunderstorms will begin to 
shift over and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Monday and
Tuesday, along and east of the northern and central mountains
Wednesday, then along and east of the central mountain chain
on Thursday. The risk of locally heavy rainfall will mainly be 
over eastern areas Tuesday through Thursday, where PWATs will 
climb over 1 inch. With northwest flow aloft over eastern areas, 
there will probably be a few strong-to-severe storms each 
afternoon and evening. At this time, shear and instability look 
most elevated on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the greatest coverage
of severe storms is expected. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Less overall shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast today
with storms tending to be focused over the western and northern
high terrain early in the afternoon before struggling to fill into
nearby valleys and lower elevations through the early evening.
Storms will be capable of producing small hail, lightning, gusty
downburst winds, and brief downpours that will temporarily reduce
ceilings and visibility. Storms will mostly come to an end before
midnight with just a few stray showers lingering into the early
morning Sunday. A similar thunderstorm pattern will unfold again
on Sunday. Hot temperatures and high density altitude readings
will cause aircraft performance to deteriorate for some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Critically low minimum humidities will be pretty widespread over
eastern areas today and Sunday. Sub-15 percent humidities will 
then increase in coverage with each day over central and western 
areas during the work week, while decreasing in coverage over 
eastern areas with the arrival of Gulf moisture. With decreasing
size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande during the work
week, there will be an increasing threat of new fire starts as 
spotty showers and storms return mainly to the mountains each 
afternoon and temperatures reach near-record readings. Otherwise,
the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic 
thunderstorm outflow, which will decrease in coverage with each
day through Monday, then increase again with each day across the
east starting Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  66  94  64 /  10  20  10   5 
Dulce...........................  91  52  90  51 /  30  30  30  20 
Cuba............................  89  59  88  60 /  30  20  20  20 
Gallup..........................  89  57  90  57 /  50  30  30  30 
El Morro........................  85  56  85  55 /  70  40  40  30 
Grants..........................  88  58  89  58 /  60  20  40  20 
Quemado.........................  85  58  86  58 /  60  20  40  20 
Magdalena.......................  87  63  88  63 /  40  20  20  10 
Datil...........................  83  58  85  58 /  50  20  30  20 
Reserve.........................  91  58  93  57 /  50  20  30  10 
Glenwood........................  96  63  98  64 /  30  20  20  10 
Chama...........................  84  53  83  52 /  40  30  40  20 
Los Alamos......................  87  64  86  63 /  30  20  40  40 
Pecos...........................  89  59  89  59 /  20  20  10  20 
Cerro/Questa....................  86  57  84  56 /  40  30  60  30 
Red River.......................  79  45  77  46 /  50  30  50  30 
Angel Fire......................  83  42  81  38 /  40  20  30  30 
Taos............................  90  57  88  56 /  20  20  40  20 
Mora............................  86  55  86  55 /  30  30  30  30 
Espanola........................  94  60  93  61 /  20  20  30  30 
Santa Fe........................  90  63  89  63 /  10  20  20  20 
Santa Fe Airport................  93  61  92  62 /  10  20  10  20 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  68  94  69 /  10  20   5  20 
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  69  95  70 /  10  20   5  20 
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  66  97  64 /  10  20   5  20 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  68  96  68 /  10  20  10  20 
Belen...........................  98  67  98  67 /  10  10   5   5 
Bernalillo......................  97  68  96  67 /  10  20   5  20 
Bosque Farms....................  97  65  97  64 /  10  20   5  10 
Corrales........................  97  68  97  67 /  10  20   5  20 
Los Lunas.......................  97  66  97  66 /  10  10   5  10 
Placitas........................  94  66  93  67 /  10  20   5  20 
Rio Rancho......................  96  68  95  68 /  10  20   5  20 
Socorro.........................  98  70  99  70 /  10  10   5   0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  63  89  64 /  10  20   5  20 
Tijeras.........................  90  64  90  64 /  10  20   5  20 
Edgewood........................  91  60  90  61 /  10  20   5  20 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  57  92  57 /  10  20   5  10 
Clines Corners..................  89  61  89  61 /  10  20   5  10 
Mountainair.....................  91  61  91  61 /  10  20   5   0 
Gran Quivira....................  90  62  91  62 /  10  10   0   0 
Carrizozo.......................  93  67  94  68 /  20  10   5   0 
Ruidoso.........................  86  58  87  60 /  30  10  10   0 
Capulin.........................  90  58  88  56 /  20  20  50  40 
Raton...........................  93  58  91  55 /  10  20  50  30 
Springer........................  96  58  94  56 /  10  30  40  40 
Las Vegas.......................  90  58  90  58 /  10  20  20  20 
Clayton.........................  98  67  97  66 /   5  10  30  40 
Roy.............................  94  63  95  61 /   5  20  20  30 
Conchas......................... 102  70 102  69 /   0  10   5  20 
Santa Rosa......................  98  68  99  67 /   0  10   5  10 
Tucumcari....................... 102  71 103  71 /   0   5   0  10 
Clovis.......................... 100  70 100  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Portales........................ 101  71 102  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Sumner..................... 101  70 102  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Roswell......................... 103  70 105  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Picacho.........................  97  66  98  67 /  10   0   5   0 
Elk.............................  92  62  93  63 /  10   5   5   0 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52