Taos Ski Valley

000
FXUS65 KABQ 312348 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
548 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- A few light showers or weak thunderstorms will develop across
  portions of western and central New Mexico through the afternoon.
 
- Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western
  New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for
  localized flooding from persistent rainfall. River rises are
  expected across northern and western NM and there is a  
  moderate to high chance for river flooding.

- There is a low (5-15%) chance that severe thunderstorms will 
  develop across eastern New Mexico Sunday night, bringing a 
  threat for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night) 
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

After a morning of low clouds and patchy fog, breaks of sunshine
are expanding this afternoon before a swath of subtropical
moisture feeds into NM later tonight. A few widely isolated and 
sparse showers and thunderstorms will be possible (10-20% chance)
over western, central, and south central zones through the early
evening, but instability is meager (LI's of 0 to -1 C and SBCAPE
of less than 200 J/kg) and large scale ascent will be lacking. 
These showers and storms would just produce a few hundredths of 
an inch immediately over very small footprints. Otherwise, 
temperatures are seasonable, and prevailing breezes are light to 
moderate (10-20 mph).

Into tonight, weather conditions will turn more unsettled as
upstream features come into play. A shortwave trough, currently
near 25N 130W, will be moving closer to the upper Baja peninsula
with a subtropical jet segment (45-60 kt at 300 mb) preceding it.
This will usher in subtropical moisture to southwestern states 
with PWATs soaring 4 to 6 standard deviations above normal for 
late Oct/early Nov and IVT (Integrated vapor transport) is showing
7 to 9 standard deviations above normal. Absolute PWAT values 
will reach 0.8 to 1.2 inch over many sectors of the forecast area,
not ground-breaking by late July standards, but certainly by 
early November climatology. As the shortwave approaches, the 
gradient aloft will increase with enough subtropical jet dynamics 
to instill large scale ascent over western to north central NM 
tonight through Sunday morning. This will lead to widespread light
to moderate nocturnal rain through this time with conditions 
remaining stable enough to support mostly stratiform 
characteristics. This would tend to keep rainfall rates low 
tonight through Sunday morning, but the stiffening southwesterlies
will produce orographics that would enhance amounts on the 
Chuskas, Tusas, and other southwest-facing slopes of the Jemez. 
By Sunday afternoon, the shortwave will be working into western NM
with modest destabilization occurring (LI's of 0 to -3 C and 
SBCAPE rising to 500-750 J/kg over some central areas). The 
strongest forcing through the afternoon would extend from 
southwestern NM into north central areas with convection on the 
eastern leading edge with rainfall rates intensifying as the 
upstream Pacific Northwest low moves toward NV.

The subtropical shortwave trough will slide toward eastern NM/CO
by midnight Sunday night with the next upstream trough trekking
along the UT-AZ border. This will spread strongest upward forcing
from central NM in the early evening toward the eastern border of
NM by the early morning hours Monday. While nighttime
stabilization would be occurring Sunday night, enough MUCAPE  
appears present (500-750 J/kg) as the large scale ascent arrives,
and this will lead to the development of a north-south line of 
convection that will race eastward. Plenty of bulk shear will be 
readily available, and this could lead to strong to severe cells 
embedded in this QLCS early Sunday evening (central zones) into 
late evening and early Monday morning (eastern plains). New 
batches of rain and high elevation snow would redevelop in 
northwestern NM from midnight through early Monday morning as the 
former Pacific Northwest low overtakes the Rockies. A Pacific cold
front would accompany, and temperatures aloft would drop 
significantly as the low/trough move in. This will cause snow 
levels to drop with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches forecast above 
a 9,500 to 10,500 range into Monday.

Through the afternoon Monday, the low would push into southwestern
KS with wrap-around dynamics keeping the northern zones favored
for any rain/snow, and the northwesterlies aloft would be very
brisk on the back side. This will pose wind concerns, likely
warranting Wind Advisories for central to east central and
northeastern NM, perhaps even meeting High Wind criteria (gusts of
58 mph) near Clines Corners through the day Monday. The due
northerly flow on the backside of the low would be most persistent
in northeastern NM, lasting well into Monday night while remaining
areas observe a weakening in speeds and a cessation of
precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday) 
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Much quieter weather will be on tap for Tuesday, as northwest flow
aloft relaxes and remains considerably drier and cooler. High
temperatures will remain slightly below normal on Tuesday. 

Into Wednesday, a mid latitude shortwave trough is projected to
cross northern CA and move into CO, perhaps closing into low per
the GFS. Timing differences among deterministic models are still 
posing uncertainties, but there is fair consensus that associated 
precipitation would stay favored near and north of the NM-CO 
border through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Breezes would 
increase Wednesday during the passage of the wave/low, and daytime
temperatures would remain seasonable.

Lighter west northwest flow aloft would follow on Thursday, and
then a baggy trough would potentially develop upstream of NM into
AZ on Friday. This dry and essentially barotropic upper level 
feature would slide southeastward, mostly bypassing NM into 
Saturday while a separate trough/low moves down the central 
plains. The latter feature could invoke some breezy to windy 
conditions with a cold front passage on Saturday, but otherwise 
and elsewhere temperatures look to remain within a few degrees of 
seasonal averages Thursday- Saturday along with mostly dry 
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A few stray light showers are currently propagating over western 
and central New Mexico ahead of a more widespread and persistent 
batch of rain, which will spread over west-central, northwestern,
and portions of north-central New Mexico late tonight into Sunday
morning. This rain will reduce CIGs and VSBYs to MVFR to IFR 
levels throughout much of the overnight period. While the eastern
plains of the state will not observe much, if any, rainfall 
overnight, areas of fog and low CIGs will develop early Sunday 
morning. Expect widespread IFR CIGs and VSBYs less than 3 SM. Rain
chances generally taper off in central NM by mid-morning, with 
lingering precipitation activity across western zones through much
of the day Sunday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms return to 
central zones and begin progressing farther east by the end of the
TAF cycle. A few storms could be strong to severe, with primary 
threats of damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

After very spotty and minimal shower and thunderstorm activity
today, more widespread rainfall will begin to overtake western to
north central NM tonight through Sunday morning, providing steady,
fuel-soaking rainfall. Most of the forecast area will also undergo
excellent humidity recovery through Sunday morning with areas of 
fog even developing. Rainfall rates will even ramp up over these 
western to north central zones Sunday afternoon as thunderstorms 
take shape. Storms will spread into more central and eastern zones
during the evening and overnight hours on a less widespread and 
more scattered basis with lower rainfall amounts. Rain will 
continue over northern zones into Monday, turning to light snow in
high elevations. Winds will turn strong on Monday, feeling much 
more brisk with gusts of 35 to 55 mph forecast (highest speeds in 
central highlands to eastern plains). Cooler temperatures and 
elevated humidity will prevent any critical fire weather concerns 
from developing Monday, despite the gusty conditions. A more 
tranquil and drier stretch is forecast to set up for the remainder
of the week, although breezes will increase to 15 to 30 mph in 
several areas on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  62  44  55 /  80 100  90  20 
Dulce...........................  41  56  38  50 /  80 100 100  70 
Cuba............................  46  57  39  49 /  70 100  90  60 
Gallup..........................  48  60  41  53 / 100 100  90  10 
El Morro........................  46  60  39  51 /  80 100 100  40 
Grants..........................  48  62  42  54 /  80  90 100  30 
Quemado.........................  49  61  41  54 /  70  90 100  60 
Magdalena.......................  51  65  45  58 /  50  60  90  40 
Datil...........................  47  61  42  53 /  70  80  90  40 
Reserve.........................  51  61  44  61 /  90 100 100  40 
Glenwood........................  55  65  46  63 /  90 100 100  50 
Chama...........................  38  51  35  44 /  70 100 100  90 
Los Alamos......................  46  57  42  51 /  70 100 100  60 
Pecos...........................  43  59  40  50 /  40  80 100  60 
Cerro/Questa....................  40  56  39  48 /  30 100 100  80 
Red River.......................  34  54  37  43 /  20  90 100  90 
Angel Fire......................  33  58  38  45 /  20  70 100  80 
Taos............................  40  60  41  51 /  30  90 100  80 
Mora............................  40  59  41  50 /  20  70  90  50 
Espanola........................  46  64  44  56 /  50  90 100  70 
Santa Fe........................  47  60  45  53 /  40  90 100  70 
Santa Fe Airport................  46  64  44  57 /  50  80 100  60 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  67  47  58 /  50  70 100  60 
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  69  48  61 /  50  70 100  50 
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  70  44  63 /  50  70  90  40 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  68  48  60 /  60  80  90  50 
Belen...........................  55  71  49  65 /  30  50  90  40 
Bernalillo......................  50  69  47  60 /  60  80 100  60 
Bosque Farms....................  51  70  46  64 /  40  60  90  40 
Corrales........................  52  69  47  60 /  60  80 100  50 
Los Lunas.......................  53  71  47  64 /  40  60  90  40 
Placitas........................  50  67  47  57 /  60  80 100  60 
Rio Rancho......................  53  68  48  59 /  60  80  90  50 
Socorro.........................  56  72  51  67 /  40  40  90  40 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  62  43  52 /  50  70 100  70 
Tijeras.........................  49  64  45  54 /  50  70 100  70 
Edgewood........................  47  64  45  54 /  50  60 100  50 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  65  45  56 /  40  50 100  50 
Clines Corners..................  46  63  43  52 /  30  40 100  30 
Mountainair.....................  48  64  44  56 /  30  40 100  70 
Gran Quivira....................  49  63  46  57 /  20  40 100  80 
Carrizozo.......................  52  69  50  61 /  20  20 100  70 
Ruidoso.........................  48  65  46  56 /  20  20  90  50 
Capulin.........................  42  61  44  56 /   5  20  80  50 
Raton...........................  41  66  44  59 /   5  20  90  40 
Springer........................  42  68  47  60 /   5  30  80  20 
Las Vegas.......................  44  61  44  55 /  20  60  90  10 
Clayton.........................  48  66  52  65 /   0  20  80  40 
Roy.............................  46  63  48  60 /   5  30  90  20 
Conchas.........................  52  69  55  67 /   5  20  90   0 
Santa Rosa......................  51  68  53  64 /  10  20  90   5 
Tucumcari.......................  54  72  56  69 /   5  10  70   0 
Clovis..........................  53  70  55  69 /   5  20  70   5 
Portales........................  53  72  56  72 /   5  10  50   5 
Fort Sumner.....................  53  69  55  68 /  10  20  70   5 
Roswell.........................  55  73  56  74 /  10  10  50   0 
Picacho.........................  52  75  53  67 /  10  10  60   0 
Elk.............................  50  71  51  64 /  10  20  60   5 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for 
NMZ201>211.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...23