Vail

000
FXUS65 KBOU 031803
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1203 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Critical fire weather conditions in South Park again today.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon for
  portions of the northern plains. 

- Near normal temperatures with scattered showers and storms on July 
  4th. A few storms could become strong to severe. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 548 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Another night of nocturnal convection brought a few late-night 
severe storms and heavy rainfall to our northeast counties once 
again. The heaviest rain was observed in locations that have seen 
multiple rounds of severe weather over the past few days across 
Logan and Sedgwick Counties. Between observations and radar totals 
showing between 1.5 to 2.5 inches falling along I-76 in these 
already saturated areas, a Flash Flood Warning was issued until 6AM 
along I-76 from Sterling to Sedgwick, as additional rainfall is 
expected for the next hour or so that could bring some flooding to 
small creeks, streams, roads, and poor drainage and low-lying areas. 

Beyond the overnight convection, the main story for today will be 
hot temperatures, and critical fire weather conditions taking hold 
across South Park once again, where a Red Flag Warning is in place 
from 12PM to 7PM for single-digit relative humidities and winds 
gusting to 25 mph. There is potential for some afternoon showers and 
storms to develop, mainly for areas along the Wyoming and Nebraska 
borders where the SPC has our three northeastern most counties in a 
Marginal Risk, with winds and hail being the main threat. We could 
also see some gusty outflows move from north to south across the 
plains in the evening from storms to the north. 

For the Fourth, increased low-level moisture and MLCAPE ranging from 
1,000 to 2,500 J/kg+ across the plains, mixed with enough 0-6km 
shear to allow for supercells to develop, we are looking at 
potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe storms 
developing by the afternoon, with the SPC highlighting areas along 
the northern I-25 corridor eastward across the plains, where large 
hail and severe winds will be the main hazards. Be prepared to 
receive weather warnings if you plan to be celebrating outdoors on 
Saturday afternoon and evening!

Hot temperatures and afternoon showers/storms will continue each day 
through the forecast period, with at least some improvements to fire 
weather conditions expected to keep critical fire weather conditions 
at bay, as we see a welcomed reprieve from single-digit relative 
humidity values after today. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Smoke will continue to impact slant range visibility today. We're
monitoring for potential virga and thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening. Chances remain too low at this time to
include in the TAF, but a Prob30 for gusty winds and rain could 
be introduced with a later TAF package. The highest chance for 
virga will be around 23Z to 3Z, with a low chance for nearby 
thunderstorms around 3Z to 6Z. Winds today will generally be out 
of the northeast, with the exception of any outflow boundaries. 
Strong outflow is expected to push into DIA around 3Z this evening
as a complex of storms moves through northern Colorado. Winds 
will turn more NW for the early overnight hours before turning SW 
for the early morning tomorrow. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ214.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...AP