Schweitzer

000
FXUS66 KOTX 312349
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning Patchy Fog.

- Cool temperatures, light winds, and 20-60% chance of light rain 
Saturday evening into Sunday. Light rain accumulations up to a tenth 
of an inch  expected over Southeast WA and the southern Idaho 
Panhandle.

- Dry conditions Sunday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid and high clouds Saturday bring a small chance of sprinkles and 
showers to southeastern Washington and north Idaho in the evening. 
Drier air arrives Sunday and conditions remain seasonal and dry 
through Wednesday. Mountain snow showers late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Sunday: The upper level pattern across the Pacific 
Northwest remains under a cool and unsettled flow out of the 
southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy skies for some areas, while other 
areas in north-central Washington and northern Idaho have improved 
to mostly clear skies on this last day of October. The upper level 
Low pressure system that is digging into northern California is 
leaving the Inland Northwest in a cool and Fall-like weather pattern 
for this weekend, keeping temperatures near or just above seasonal 
normal for end of October/start of November (normal max/min temps 
for Spokane are 49/34 and Lewiston 55/38, respectively). Pockets of 
fog and dense fog arrived early this morning for the West Plains, 
the Palouse, and some areas of the Spokane metro. Clouds have since 
cleared for most areas and winds have shifted to more easterly. 
Chances are low for a repeat of dense fog on Sunday given the 
incoming rain and moisture, but not a zero chance.

Most of the energy associated with the Low pressure system has 
shifted farther south, so earlier predictions (days before) of rain 
showers for Tonight continue to wane and become less. The latest 
high-res guidance (REFS and HRRR) keeps the precipitation chances 
for the Inland Northwest confined to the Lewiston-Pullman/Palouse 
area beginning after 8 PM and closer to 10 PM. The near-surface 
environment is dry so seeing much in the way of measureable precip 
more than a few hundredths is unlikely (10% chance of 0.01" through 
11 PM). The better chances for and more prominent band of 
precipitation will arrive between 11 PM and 11 AM. A 40-60% chance 
of 0.05 - 0.08 rain is expected from Lewiston north to Cusick, WA 
and east along the I-95 corridor from Lewiston to Hayden, Idaho. 

An influence of cooler and drier air from the west (precipitable 
water climo values at 100-120% of normal will transition to 70-80% 
of normal) should keep the chances for precipitation to a narrow 
period of time this weekend. The energy from the Low will shift 
eastward through the day Sunday leaving the start of the week with 
mild and dry weather. 

Monday through Friday: High pressure behind the departing system 
will build into the Northwest resulting in seasonal temperatures 
(near normal for early November) and dry conditions through  mid 
week. One notable change I've seen while looking at the forecast is 
the introduction of a few hours Monday morning (5 - 8 AM) of the 
potential for freezing rain across the upper Columbia Basin (Hwy 2 
corridor) and late Monday night overnight into early Tuesday morning 
the chances of snow showers in the Cascade mountains. The freezing 
rain potential noted by the National Blend of Models is a small 
period of time and about 20% chance right now. The environment 
doesn't seem as favorable with dry air and cool but not overly cold 
temperatures aloft or near the surface. Needless to say, my 
confidence is not great but I'd be doing a dis-service if I didn't 
mention the potential. Snow amounts in the Cascades above 3500/4000 
feet look favorable for several inches of accumulation for Wednesday 
through Friday (35-60% chance by end of Friday for amounts above 
4000 feet). /Dewey 

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Clouds are starting to overspread the Inland Northwest
and chances for light rain increase overnight for eastern WA and
north ID. Overall, conditions are expected to remain VFR except
for KPUW. Uplsope westerly flow into KPUW will lead to ceilings
dropping to IFR around 10-12Z Sunday. There is a 60% chance 
this persists until 20z. Chances drop off into the afternoon but
continued westerly flow supports MVFR ceilings to persist. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence in IFR ceilings for KPUW. High confidence in VFR
conditions elsewhere. 

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our 
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        38  51  33  52  35  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene  38  52  33  51  35  53 /  20  10   0   0   0   0 
Pullman        36  48  32  51  35  52 /  30  30   0   0   0   0 
Lewiston       42  53  38  55  39  56 /  30  40   0   0   0   0 
Colville       32  51  27  51  26  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0 
Sandpoint      35  50  32  49  32  51 /   0  10   0   0   0   0 
Kellogg        37  51  34  51  35  54 /  10  20   0   0   0   0 
Moses Lake     35  54  29  55  34  57 /  10   0   0   0   0   0 
Wenatchee      36  52  34  52  40  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Omak           35  51  31  52  36  55 /  10   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$