Lutsen Mountains

000
FXUS63 KDLH 312337
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
637 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Trick-or-Treaters will see scattered showers this evening with
  generally light rain totals of a few hundredths of an inch and
  mild temperatures this evening will in the 40s and 50s.

- Widespread rainfall is expected early next week. Most are 
  likely (80%) an inch of rain or more, but higher amounts 
  remain uncertain.

- The Northland will see a drier pattern with cooler 
  temperatures at the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers are currently moving north throughout the 
Northland, though they are still fighting some dry air. 
Scattered showers will continue into this evening and tonight as
Trick or Treaters head out. While there may be a shower here and
there, Trick or Treaters will not have to worry about freezing
temperatures, as warm air advection will keep temperatures in 
the upper 40s and lower 50s with lower 40s near Lake Superior. 
Overall rainfall amounts for the rest of the day and overnight 
will stay light at a tenth of an inch or less, though patchy fog
will likely develop across the area late tonight where rain
falls. Fog is most likely to form where rain falls throughout
the day today.

On Sunday, any lingering morning drizzle and patchy fog will burn
off as a warm front lifts north into Ontario. A brief period of
partial clearing will allow mild air to spread over our region,
sending afternoon highs into the lower to middle 60s for many 
inland locations. Skies will turn mostly cloudy again late 
Sunday night as the next storm system gathers over the Plains.

Widespread rain showers are still expected Monday into Tuesday. A
strong plume of moisture from the Gulf and an atmospheric river
will bring a soaking rainfall across the area, as precipitable
water values are near the climatological maximum for this time
of year across the Northland. Quick changes in pressure ahead 
of the system will lead to windy conditions with the rain, 
leading to winds of 20-30 mph Monday daytime. Isolated embedded
storms are possible Tuesday as instability is added to the mix.
Severe weather is not anticipated, but also cannot be 
completely ruled out at this time. Showers will remain likely 
Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper low dropping out of the
Canadian Prairies interacts with the system over the Upper 
Midwest. Rain will gradually taper off from west to east through
Wednesday afternoon as the center of low pressure slowly 
departs into the Great Lakes, leaving damp and cloudy conditions
across the region. Most of the area has at least an 80% chance 
for an inch or more of rain. However, chances for 2 inches or 
higher have decreased slightly, and expected totals have 
decreased slightly as well. These probabilities will be 
monitored of how they adjust as the event nears.

High pressure will build into the Northland for Thursday and Friday,
bringing an end to the wet pattern. Drier conditions will prevail
for the end of the week, though mostly cloudy skies will linger.
Cooler air filtering in behind the departing system will return
temperatures to seasonal norms, with highs retreating into the 40s
and overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A warm front over southern Minnesota this evening will slowly 
lift northward tonight and Sunday morning. Scattered showers 
will persist and additional showers are expected later tonight 
as a modest southerly low-level jet yields increased forcing for
ascent. Expect ceilings to trend lower as the front moves north
with ceilings rising behind the boundary. Fog and mist tonight 
will reduce visibility and should improve gradually Sunday 
morning. Look for ceilings to rise to lower half of MVFR during 
the day and potentially scatter out at HYR, BRD, and possibly 
DLH.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Favorable marine conditions will persist across Western Lake 
Superior through Sunday night with waves 1 foot or less and 
winds generally under 10 knots, though patchy fog may reduce 
visibility overnight. Winds will increase early next week as a 
large area of low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest. Breezy 
northeasterly winds gusting to around 25 knots on Monday 
afternoon through Tuesday will build waves, likely requiring 
Small Craft Advisories near the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Fire weather concerns remain very low through the forecast 
period. Southeast winds around 5 to 10 mph will shift to the 
south tonight into Sunday morning along with increasing humidity
and light rain. Brisk southeast winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph 
will develop Monday, but widespread rain of 1 inch or greater 
Monday through Wednesday will keep humidity high and suppress 
fire potential. A cooler and drier pattern will follow late in 
the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML