Lutsen Mountains

000
FXUS63 KDLH 221732
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers exiting by early this morning. Portions of
  the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could see a few
  sprinkles from late this morning through early evening.

- Otherwise, dry and sunny for this weekend with lower dewpoints
  and seasonal high temperatures. Breezy northwest winds for 
  today.

- Chilly Saturday and Sunday nights with low temperatures in 
  the 40s and possibly upper 30s in the typical cold spots. No 
  frost is forecast at this time. 

- The next chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is 
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Today - Sunday:

A few remnant rain showers in north-central WI exit to the east
by early this morning as a cold front finishes moving through 
the Northland. Additional accumulation of around 0.1-0.2" or 
less expected.

The rest of this weekend shapes up to be largely dry as
northwest flow aloft sets up along with surface high pressure.
We may be able to squeeze out a few sprinkles in the MN Arrowhead
and portions of northwest WI later this morning through early
evening with post-cold front cold-air advection (CAA). A drier
low-level airmass in place may keep most of this precipitation
in the form of virga rather than precipitation actually reaching
the ground. Regardless, measurable precipitation is not 
forecast. Winds will also be gusty out of the northwest today up
to 20-25 mph before becoming light to calm tonight and mostly 
light on Sunday. 

High temperatures remain near normal in the 69-78 F range for
most of the Northland this weekend. The drier airmass, lighter
winds, and mostly clear skies Saturday night and Sunday night
will result in chillier low temperatures in the low to upper 40s
across much of the Northland. The typical cold spots will likely 
even touch the upper-30s, though frost is currently not 
expected. 

Monday - Wednesday:

Shortwave ridging aloft on Monday keeps the Northland dry most 
of the day. However, an upper-level cut-off low and its 
attendant surface low traversing the Canadian Prairies this 
weekend into Monday eventually works its way into and through 
portions of the Upper Midwest for Monday night into Wednesday, 
bringing periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Initial
warm-frontal showers/storms move into northeast Minnesota for 
Monday night, then the warm sector of the surface low sets up 
over portions of the Northland daytime Tuesday, and then the 
cold front moves through the area from west to east late Tuesday
through Tuesday night before exiting the area on Wednesday as 
the vertically stacked low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. 
While there is likely to still be some slight adjustments in 
timing of this system, if the warm sector can set up over the 
Northland on daytime Tuesday in conjunction with peak heating, 
there is a non-zero chance that we could see some of the 
scattered storms become strong to severe ahead of the cold front
Tuesday afternoon and evening as instability maximizes along 
with ample 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots. The picture for 
this will become clearer as we get into early next week and the 
forecast mesoscale features come into better focus. Expect 
scattered shower and non-severe storm chances to linger into 
Wednesday as cyclonic flow sets up over the region behind the 
departing low pressure. 

With rainfall likely to be scattered with this weather system, 
precipitation could be hit or miss for portions of the area. The
fairly progressive nature of this system also limits residence 
time and heavy rainfall potential. NBM probabilities of 0.25" or
greater Monday night through Wednesday currently range from 
20-30% in the Brainerd Lakes into I-35 corridor, to 50-80% in
much of the Arrowhead and northern MN, highest near the
International Border. Probabilities in much of northwest WI
range from 30-60%. Probabilities for >1" fall off substantially
to effectively less than 20% across the Northland, with
potential likely to be localized to where several thunderstorms
move over a given location.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer early next week with 
highs in the 70s to low-80s Monday through Wednesday and even a 
few spots of mid-80s on Tuesday, while lows Monday night and 
Tuesday night fall into the upper 40s to 50s.

Late Next Week:

The second half of the upcoming work week looks to remain in 
northwest flow aloft, with surface high pressure returning and 
bringing drier conditions again as precipitation chances 
Thursday and Friday remain at 15% or less. Global ensemble 
guidance diverges regarding the mid- and upper-level pattern 
going into next weekend, leading to lower confidence in the 
forecast beyond late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Diurnal cumulus clouds will be present through much of the
afternoon into the evening with smoke aloft and patchy smoke at
the surface occasionally reducing visibilities at INL, HIB, and
BRD to MVFR. Tonight, fog is expected with areas of dense fog
possible at HIB. IFR to LIFR visibilities and ceilings are
possible with the fog. Winds will be gusty today, up to 25 kts
throughout the afternoon before decreasing this evening. 

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Northwest winds of 5 to 15 kts are expected today, with daytime
gusts of 15-20 kts for the North Shore to Twin Ports and in the
Outer Apostles to Saxon Harbor. Winds become northerly tonight
into early Sunday morning at 15 kts or less for most except up
to 20 kts near Grand Portage. Winds become light and variable
for the remainder of Sunday into Sunday night before becoming
light out of the east to northeast on Monday. No thunderstorms
are expected until at least late Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area 
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A secondary cold front exiting northwest Wisconsin early this
morning will lead to an end of isolated showers in north-central
Wisconsin prior to sunrise. Breezy northwesterly flow and drier
air arrives behind the front for today. Expect afternoon RH
today to dip to 30-45% range, with some locally lower values 
possible in the I-35 corridor east into the northwest Wisconsin
Pine Barrens. This will be accompanied by late morning through
early evening wind gusts up to 20 mph, locally to 25 mph. Min RH
on Sunday drops slightly lower to 30-40% for most areas, with
potential for the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens to touch the
mid to upper-20s with peak afternoon mixing. Winds will be
lighter out of the North on Sunday, though a few gusts to 10-15
mph are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin during
the day. Fairly dry again with 30-45% min RH on Monday before
moisture increases Monday night through Wednesday as a low
pressure system approaches and moves through the area. There
will be scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for Monday
night through Tuesday, with some wrap around showers/general
thunderstorms chances lingering into Wednesday. Widespread,
heavy rainfall is not anticipated so appreciable drought relief
is not expected. Some spots that see repeated thunderstorms 
move overhead early next week could pick up locally higher
amounts in excess of an inch, but this would be very localized 
at best and with a less than 20% chance of occurring.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein