Holiday Valley

000
FXUS61 KBUF 312230
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
630 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and dry weather through tonight. 

2) Well above normal temperatures Sunday afternoon through the end 
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and dry weather through tonight. 

Surface high pressure will dominate across the region through 
tonight. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s across 
western NY and the upper 30s to low 40s across north-central NY this 
evening. Overnight low temperatures will fall to the 30s in most 
areas, with some 20s across the North Country and in some of the 
colder Southern Tier valleys. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures Sunday afternoon 
through the end of the week.

The pattern becomes amplified across the CONUS with a deep trough 
across the Plains and a ridge building across the east next week. 
Surface high pressure will persist across the eastern seaboard and 
maintain mostly dry weather through Wednesday. Warm air advection 
will strengthen across the region through mid-week. A few showers 
can't be ruled out on the leading edge of the warm-air advection 
Tuesday. The warmest days are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday 
with daytime highs in the mid 60s to low 70s on Tuesday, and the 
upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday. This setup translates to an 
unusual event for the region in early November according to the 
ECMWF EFI. South winds will increase through mid-week. Gusty winds 
are possible on Wednesday. 

A narrow corridor of deep moisture ahead of the upper level trough 
axis will slowly work it's way across the region Wednesday night 
through Thursday. A shortwave trough coupled with a cold front will 
support unsettled weather across the region Thursday through Friday. 
There remains high uncertainty in rainfall amounts late in the
week. Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong surface high pressure over NY/PA tonight will drift slowly 
towards the northern Mid Atlantic Sunday. A few periods of mid/high 
clouds will cross Western NY tonight, and then the entire area 
Sunday as warm advection develops in the wake of the departing high. 
There may be a small amount of patchy fog in the river valleys of 
the Southern Tier late tonight through Sunday morning with local 
IFR. Otherwise, VFR will continue to prevail tonight through Sunday.

Outlook... 

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a few scattered light 
showers possible.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong surface high over the lower Great Lakes tonight will drift 
to the northern Mid Atlantic States Sunday through Monday, then off 
the eastern seaboard Tuesday. Light winds Sunday will become south 
to southwest Sunday night through Tuesday, but winds and waves will 
remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another extended period of dry weather and warming temperatures
is expected beginning Sunday and lasting through the first half
of next week. This will continue to result in very dry fine 
fuels and leaf litter.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK
FIRE WEATHER...AR/Hitchcock