Arizona Snowbowl

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221704
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1004 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms 
to continue through early next week, primarily across the higher 
terrain. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected to develop 
as a strong high pressure system builds over Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft centered over northeast New 
Mexico and southeast Colorado early Saturday morning will slowly 
drift southward through Tuesday then westward toward the end of 
next week becoming centered over the southern portions of 
Arizona/New Mexico border. The net result will be daily chances 
for showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through 
Monday or Tuesday then diminished chances as the position of the 
high will allow for a bit drier air and a more stable air mass to
develop over northern Arizona.

For Today...Monsoon moisture will remain in place. As a result, 
we're looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers 
and thunderstorms with a bit more activity than seen on Friday. 
Southeast flow aloft will continue to favor shower and
thunderstorm development midday over the Grand Canyon, Mogollon 
Rim, White mountains and Chuska Mountains with activity then 
tending to move north and east from that point. However, deep 
moisture still resides to the south of the Mogollon Rim and 
models are showing and increase activity even for Yavapai and Gila
Counties. Otherwise, light winds and hot.

From Sunday into Tuesday...Monsoon moisture remains in place with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The flow aloft will
remain southerly with the bulk of activity expected from the 
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Otherwise, with the 
high remaining over the southwest United States, light winds will 
continue along with above normal temperatures.

Looking from Wednesday onward...Models appear to be trending 
toward high pressure aloft becoming centered over southeast 
Arizona/southwest New Mexico. This solution would bring in a more 
southwest to west flow aloft which would deliver a drier air mass 
as well as a capping layer aloft under the influence of weak 
subsidence. In addition, daytime temperatures will be on the 
increase, likely eventually rising to the upper 80 to lower 90s 
in the mountains to 105 to 110 degrees at elevations below 4000 
feet. Yeah a bummer, but its still summer after all.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 22/18Z through Sunday 23/18Z...VFR conditions
mostly expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier 
SHRA/TSRA. Showers/storms forecast between 18Z-02Z, with greatest 
coverage along a KFLG-KSOW line and along the AZ/NM border. 
Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable 
winds 10 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/18Z through Tuesday 25/18Z...VFR conditions
mostly expected. Daily chances for -SHRA/-TSRA possible, primarily
across the higher terrain. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven 
winds, look for variable winds 10 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Look for isolated to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across northern 
Arizona with main focus from the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim 
northward. Stronger storms will produce gusty and erratic winds and 
localized heavy rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be 
southwest to northwest 5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the 
evening and overnight.

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
continue on Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Stronger storms will bring gusty and erratic winds and brief 
downpours. Otherwise, warming daytime temperatures with southwest to 
west winds at 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff