Snow Creek

000
FXUS63 KEAX 312312
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers today. 

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening 
  into the overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Isolated to scattered showers continue across the forecast area as a 
mid-level wave works through the region. Recent regional radar 
composite imagery shows bands of showers creeping northeastward from 
northeast Oklahoma and southwest Kansas. These showers will renew 
rain chances into the evening hours as the mid-level disturbance 
rolls through the Plains/Midwest. Not much of anything to fear, 
however, as rain is expected to remain light. Little to no 
instability should keep lightning at bay, but the possibility cannot 
be entirely ruled out. PoPs sit between 15% and 40% across the 
region, peaking during the afternoon through dusk timeframe. 
Overnight, a shortwave ridge will build into the Plains, keeping 
Sunday dry.

Monday continues to capture our attention. An amplifying upper 
trough is expected to progress eastward into the central CONUS and 
induce surface cyclogenesis. Ahead of this system, deep-layer 
moisture advection is expected with strong southerly/southwesterly 
flow from the surface up to practically the tropopause. Forecast 
PWATs continue to approach or exceed the NAEFS climatological 
maximum with some forecast soundings suggesting the potential for 
PWATs >1.9". WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for 
excessive rainfall on Monday. Despite the highly anomalous moisture 
profiles for this time of year, antecedent soil conditions remain 
near normal and should hopefully help limit potential flooding 
impacts. Shear profiles are also rather notable with potential for 
deep-layer shear to exceed 40-50 kts. Instability is less impressive 
(on the order of a few hundred J/kg of CAPE) but would surely be 
sufficient in such a highly kinematic environment. LREF hodograph 
plumes for Monday evening have a clear preference for a deep veering 
wind profile with mean 0-3km SRH >250 m2/s2 with the 10th percentile 
0-3km SRH around 180 m2/s2. While damaging winds appear to be the 
main concern for our area, there looks to be support for a tornado 
threat at least some point during the evening. How much this threat 
is realized seems dependent on the timing of storms as shear 
profiles become less supportive as the evening progresses. Improved 
temporal resolution of guidance in forthcoming shifts should help 
clarify the evolution of the environment on Monday. The current, 
general expectation for events on Monday is for convective 
initiation to occur further west before growing upscale, leading to 
a more linear storm mode locally. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk 
(Level 1 of 5) for severe weather to include more of northwestern 
Missouri; eastern Kansas and western Missouri still remain in this 
risk category as well. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe 
weather clips Linn County, KS.

Some rain and storms may bleed into the day on Tuesday but are 
currently expected to clear by the evening hours. Behind this 
system, cooler temperatures settle in for the mid/late week with 
high temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Light VFR rain is possible through the evening hours as a
shortwave trough moves from west to east across the Central
Mississippi Valley. Light rain will generally be most prevailing
along and south of the Missouri River. MVFR stratus is expected
to develop after 06Z tonight, and may become thick enough to
produce drizzle across the region Sunday morning. Potential for
ceilings to dip into the IFR range Sunday morning, before
gradually settling in the MVFR range after 17Z Sunday. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko
AVIATION...BT