Paoli Peaks

000
FXUS63 KLMK 312347
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
747 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A chance for much needed rainfall will move into the region 
  tonight and continue through the day on Sunday.

* Unsettled weather pattern will continue through much of next week. 
  Breezy conditions with widespread showers returning to the region 
  mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Currently, satellite imagery and ground observations show a solid 
sheet of high clouds over all of Indiana and Kentucky with some mid-
level clouds around 10k feet. At the surface, winds are fairly light 
and variable out of a general southeasterly direction. Most areas 
will see temperatures reach into the 70s. Some areas in southeastern 
Indiana and the eastern Bluegrass may only see the upper 60s.

Tonight, a shortwave riding along the axis of the upper trough will 
lift from near the Ozarks eastward into the Lower Ohio Valley. 
Surface high pressure, centered to our east, keeps a flow of 
moisture and southeasterly winds over the CWA. A weak low level jet 
will form just to our west and try to ease into central Kentucky and 
southern Indiana, but it's expected to remain fairly weak, around 20-
35 knots in pockets. This will begin to produce showers with chances 
increasing through the night. There is a decent amount of dry air 
under 700 mb that any rain will have to overcome before reaching the 
ground. This is expected to limit totals before rain ends Sunday 
night. The best chances for rain remain near Bowling Green and in 
areas farther to the southwest. The forecast currently has totals 
around 0.5" in that area tapering to the north and east to just a 
hundredth or two near Madison, Indiana and areas near Richmond, KY 
and east.  

Behind the shortwave, the next system with a couple of embedded 
surface lows in a large upper trough will bring a north to south 
oriented cold front towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of the 
system, an increasing pressure gradient pushing on the outgoing 
surface high will result in southerly winds reaching 10-15 mph on 
Monday, but this will increase to 20-25 mph by Tuesday lifting highs 
into the mid to upper 70s across the CWA Tuesday afternoon before 
showers ahead of the front work east into the CWA Tuesday night. This 
will be our better chance for rain as widespread rain and showers 
are expected be east of the CWA Wednesday night. Another upper low/ 
showerwave could bring a quick moving shot of additional showers 
Thursday night into Friday morning. In total the area is looking to 
receive between 1.25 and 3.5 inches with the current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the early portions of the TAF 
period, with high overcast clouds covering the region. An area of 
light rain will move northeast towards the region tonight, entering 
the western terminals closer to 12z. Chances for rain will increase 
throughout the day, with light rain prevailing across the terminals 
after 19z. Ceilings will slowly lower throughout the day Sunday, 
with the potential for MVFR cigs after 18z over BWG and HNB. Winds 
will be light and primarily out of the SSE tonight increasing to 
around 5-7 kt by 18z Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDW
AVIATION...BEN