Paoli Peaks

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221746
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
  possible through 8 PM EDT this evening along a cold front. A few 
  strong to marginally severe storms are possible, particularly in 
  the Bluegrass Region. The primary threats are isolated strong wind 
  gusts and hail. 

* Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for Sunday through 
  Tuesday. 

* Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low rain chances return 
  by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Conditions are dry and partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. A weak 
cold front has pushed into portions of northern and western KY early 
this afternoon. A mid and upper level shortwave trough is digging 
southeast over the Great Lakes, placing the Lower OH Valley in the 
exit region of a 45-50 kt northwesterly 500 mb jet over the Midwest. 
Low-level moisture continues to pool ahead of the cold front, with 
sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There is some drier 
air aloft, which will limit convective coverage this afternoon (peak 
PW axis of 1.4-1.5 inches in a relatively narrow corridor). 

The lowest levels continue to gradually warm and destabilize, with 
sfc temperatures in the low to mid 80s. MLCAPE is forecast to reach 
2000-2500 J/kg across central KY, along and south of the frontal 
boundary. We are now seeing the beginnings of very isolated 
convective initiation across SW Ohio and eastern KY this afternoon. 
Isolated to widely scattered convection should fill in further SW 
along the cold front through mid-afternoon. Our highest PoPs (30-50% 
chance) remain focused over the Bluegrass Region, with the 30% 
contour stretching as far southwest as Bowling Green. Expect little, 
if any, convection west of I-65, however. 

The stronger mid-level flow streaming in from the NW will help boost 
deep-layer shear to 25-30 kts this afternoon. This would be enough 
for a loosely organized muticell cluster or two, again most likely 
in the Bluegrass Region. While strong to severe storms should be 
fairly sparse, the strongest cells will be capable of marginally 
severe hail and wind. The main time frame for isolated to widely 
scattered storms is 2-7 PM EDT. 

The cold front pushes well southeast of the area tonight. High 
pressure at the surface builds southeast over the Midwest through 
Sunday. The arrival of cooler, drier air from the northwest will 
make for a very pleasant end to the weekend. Temperatures will fall 
into the low to mid 60s early Sunday morning. Sunday looks partly 
sunny, with a building SCT cumulus field during the afternoon. 
Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Early Monday morning, 
temperatures are forecast to dip into the 55-60 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Mainly dry conditions continue into early next week. Monday looks 
like a beautiful day, with relatively low humidity and afternoon 
highs in the low to mid 80s. A weak mid-level shortwave trough 
zipping through NW flow will move over the region late Monday. 
However, a sfc warm front is forecast to set up to our southwest and 
keep higher rain chances focused across portions of MO, AR, and TN. 
Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 80s. 

The latest model guidance pushes a warm front a little further north 
into central KY by Wednesday. With the development of broad upper 
level troughing, this could be enough for isolated to scattered 
showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper level 
trough continues to amplify in tandem with a sfc low across the 
Great Lakes heading into Thursday. This system should drag a cold 
front through the region on Thursday, bringing at least a small 
chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms.   

Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be common Wednesday through the 
end of the forecast period. A few of our warmer spots may touch 90 
on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A cold front is moving across the region this afternoon, with winds 
veering from the W/SW to the NW across the boundary. Wind gusts of 
15-25 kt will be possible this afternoon. SCT-BKN cu field has 
developed, with cloud bases mainly 4-5k ft, so would expect VFR 
conditions to continue this afternoon. An isolated shower or storm 
chance will continue in the forecast for LEX/RGA this afternoon, 
with confidence in storms being low-medium at best.

Tonight, winds should relax after sunset, with light W/NW winds 
expected overnight. Winds may ease enough for patchy fog development 
at RGA/HNB/BWG Sunday morning, but confidence is too low at this 
time to include in the forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CSG