Mt. Brighton

000
FXUS63 KMQT 221811
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
211 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  across mainly central Upper Michigan later today with minimal
  rainfall totals. 

- Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with 
  the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and
  Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Radar mosaic has been somewhat quiet over the last several hours 
with just an uptick in showers/isolated storms across the west. 
Latest radar mosaic shows that weak convection now moving 
southeastward along the WI/MI border. With limited instability, 
however, do not anticipate this activity to produce much rain or 
thunder. Later today, additional scattered showers and weak storms 
are possible as another cold front and shortwave drop southeast 
overhead. That said, CAMs are even less impressed with this round. 
Outside the south-central where some spots could reach up to 0.25 
inches, accumulations remain below 0.1 inches. Highs will be in the 
upper 60s to mid 70s. Currently, ground-based obs across the area 
are reporting low 50s over much the interior west with 
visibility restrictions of 1/4 mile at both Sawyer and Iron 
Mountain. By daybreak, these areas could drop into the upper 
40s. Elsewhere, the southern and eastern UP and Keweenaw are 
reporting temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Temps continue to decrease this weekend, bottoming out Sunday as a 
mid level trough deepens over the Great Lakes. CAA lowers 850 mb 
temps to between 3-6C, yielding highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows 
in the 40s to mid 50s. Some interior spots likely will dip back into 
the upper 30s Sunday night. Northerly winds are expected to gust up 
to 20 mph on Saturday and between 20-30 mph on Sunday, highest 
east...particularly near Lake Superior. High pressure moving in from 
the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of 
Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the 
region. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night 
and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the period, with 
exceptions for ongoing, off-and-on MVFR ceilings at IWD for the next 
few hours, as well as potential (30%) MVFR ceilings at SAW during 
the early morning hours due to 20-40% chances of precipitation. Due 
to a moist atmosphere and diminishing overnight winds, fog may 
materialize at IWD during the early morning hours, but given the low 
(15%) chance of MVFR ceilings and very low (<10%) chance of LIFR 
ceilings, this was not included in the TAF at this time. Winds 
should remain gusty at CMX overnight, with sustained winds 
diminishing to just below 10 knots overnight before building back 
above 10 knots by daybreak. CMX, too, has low (roughly 15%) yet 
nonzero probabilities of MVFR ceilings during the early morning 
hours into the morning. For SAW, radar currently shows isolated rain 
clouds forming in its vicinity before tracking SE away from the TAF 
site and growing into thunderstorms once further away; thus, the TAF 
includes only VCSH continuing through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Lake Superior - Northwest winds behind a cold front increase on 
Saturday to 20-30 kts over the east half of the lake by late 
afternoon, strongest near the south-central shores. Gusts approach 
20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly Saturday night 
behind a second cold front, central lake superior winds increase to 
15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This 
holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from 
west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 
ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for 
gales to 35 kts are only between 15-25%, highest south of Stannard 
Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores. Winds otherwise 
remain below 20 kts through Tuesday before the next system brings 
back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 

Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - Southerly 
winds of 15-25 kts ahead of the cold front this afternoon drop off 
into this evening, becoming northwest for Saturday. Scattered 
thunderstorms are expected this evening, but severe storms are not 
expected. Winds increase to 20-30 kts this weekend as a colder 
airmass descends over the Great Lakes. Winds fall back below 20 kts 
Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for 
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDUD
AVIATION...RE/GS
MARINE...77