Mt. Brighton

000
FXUS63 KDTX 312323
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
723 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and mostly cloudy through early next week.

- Warmer on Tuesday with an increasing chance of rain mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistent ridging over the Great Lakes has started to break down 
this evening as warm advection takes precedence. This has led to a 
blanket of mid-cloud (centered around 10.0 kft agl) while moisture 
lifts along the frontal slope. This has also generated very light 
shower activity across the southern portions of the airspace. SE 
Michigan will remain in a transition period through Sunday, 
maintaining the 10.0 kft cloud deck and light east-southeast flow. 

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

DISCUSSION...

Slow progression of governing synoptic features maintains benign 
weather through the weekend and into early next week. The 12z DTX 
raob showed stable conditions and the saturation between 700 and 
550mb responsible for the mostly cloudy day. Satellite imagery 
reveals a vast swath of the central CONUS shrouded in mid-level 
cloud, boosting confidence in a continued mostly cloudy forecast 
going forward as this cloud is steered around the SE CONUS 700mb 
ridge. A few sprinkles will be possible at times where transient 
pockets of forcing emerge within an ill-defined warm frontal 
structure aloft. The blanket of clouds maintains milder conditions 
tonight, with evening temperatures in the mid 50s settling into the 
40s and lower 50s overnight.

Despite the clouds, positive thickness advection will help boost 
high temps back into the 60s Sunday and Monday. A 30% chance for 
light showers arrives Monday evening and overnight as an upstream 
low sends a more organized arm of theta-e advection across the Great 
Lakes. The bulk of the moisture transport is forecast to hold 
upstream. Arrival of the warm sector Tuesday brings high temps some 
15 to 20 degrees above normal, near 70 degrees.

Evolution of the upstream low exhibits increasing spread beyond 
Monday, but in general a pattern shift is looking likely by mid to 
late week as a Pacific wave eventually makes its way across the 
Great Lakes. The wave nearly cuts off from the steering flow as it 
tracks over the Plains Monday, then a northern stream shortwave 
descends from central Canada on Tuesday. The interaction of these 
waves opens the door for significant differences to arise wrt timing 
of precip locally. Later solutions that bring rain in late Wednesday 
are driven by a much stronger system that occludes sooner over the 
Plains, delaying arrival of meridional moisture transport. Earlier 
solutions, which make up a smaller portion of the ensemble 
membership, appear to result from a slightly stronger system over 
the Corn Belt that's capable of producing greater poleward moisture 
transport, but not so strong that the low completely occludes 
upstream. Ultimately, most of the sensitivity in the forecast comes 
from the forward speed of the Pacific trough which will come into 
focus the next few forecast cycles. Highest confidence in precip at 
this stage is currently on Wednesday, at around 60 to 70%.

MARINE...

Expansive high pressure centered over the central and eastern Great 
Lakes this afternoon will slowly exit east this weekend. Light 
southerly winds will prevail for the second half of the weekend. 
Southerly winds will increase early next week as low pressure 
develops over Minnesota and lingers into the midweek. Wind gusts are 
expected to peak out 25 to 30 knot range, as warm air (lower teens 
at 850 MB) keeps mixing depths in check. Enough moisture is expected 
to advect into the Great Lakes region to support increased coverage 
of showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers could potentially linger 
into Thursday as either the primary cold front or a weaker low 
pressure system tracks through.  Wind speeds and direction remain 
uncertain for Thursday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......SF


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