Mount Bohemia

000
FXUS63 KMQT 010001
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
801 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers are possible this evening (20-40% chance). Those
  headed out trick-or-treating may want to have an umbrella 
  handy, particularly in the far western U.P. and close to the 
  WI/MI border.

- Temperatures will be unseasonably warm Sunday through Tuesday with 
  highs/lows 15-25F warmer than seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected Monday afternoon
  through Tuesday evening. There is a 60-80% chance for over 1"
  of rainfall over a 48 hour period, highest in the southern 
  and western U.P. 

- Forecast confidence is low for precipitation chances Wednesday
  through Friday as some model solutions are slower with the
  progression of the system this week, which could result in 
  additional rainfall for the mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

This afternoon GOES satellite imagery and GFS 500mb height analysis 
showed upper level ridging over the central U.S ahead of an upstream 
trough along the West Coast. Clouds were widespread from the Gulf 
coast north through the Plains and Midwest as warm, moist are was 
spreading northwards. A weak shortwave on the western edge of the 
ridge and area of isentropic ascent was kicking of scattered showers 
across the eastern portion of Minnesota and northern WI. Clouds were 
starting to spread over the southern half of the U.P. but were 
taking their time, working against dry air in place. Surface 
observations showed light southerly winds across the U.P. with 
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures should 
continue to climb into the mid 50s as the afternoon progresses.

Tonight the shortwave and associated warm front will lift north 
through the U.P. bringing widespread cloud cover and a period of 
scattered showers. Clouds and increasing low level moisture will 
help keep temperatures warmer tonight, generally in the 40s. While 
most of the showers are expected later this evening, areas in the 
western U.P. and near the WI/MI border could see scattered showers 
earlier in the evening. Showers are expected to remain on the 
lighter side, with only a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall. 

Unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected for Sunday into early 
next week along with widespread cloud cover. Sunday should be mostly 
dry but deep saturation in sounding profiles favor the potential for 
a few sprinkles. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s through Tuesday 
and lows in the upper 40s to 50s (15-25F above average for early 
November). 

Along with the warmer and more humid conditions, periods of 
widespread rainfall are expected Monday night into Tuesday night. 
The first period is expected to overspread the U.P. from west to 
east Monday late afternoon into the evening hours as low pressure 
lifts north from Colorado and tracks towards Minnesota. This bring 
strengthening isentropic ascent / waa resulting in moderate to 
potentially heavy rainfall at times. Additional rounds of showers 
can be expected on Tuesday into Tuesday night with the area 
remaining in the warm sector of the system as the low tracks north 
into Ontario and stalls/retrogrades as it phases with a clipper like 
system. Couldn't completely rule out thunder at times as LIs 
approach 0 to -1 and mucape reaches 200-500 J/kg.

There will be an elevated risk for excessive rainfall Monday night 
into Tuesday; WPC highlights a marginal (5%) risk. ECMWF EFIs are 
relatively high over much of the U.P. with a SOT of 1 over the south 
and west for QPF Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. NBM 
probabilities for 1" or more of rainfall through the event are 
around 80% in the south and west and 60% in the east. The 
probability for 2" or more is around 30% in the south and west but 
the higher probabilities lie west of the area over central MN, 
closer to the track of the low pressure. 

Winds turn westerly Wednesday behind a cold front that sweeps across 
the U.P. on Wednesday night, with a shift to the north by Thursday. 
This will bring cooler air back into the area with highs in the 
upper 40s to low 50s, closer to but still several degrees above 
seasonal averages. Shower chances continue Wednesday through Friday 
but generally in the 20-30% range at this time. Models diverge on 
how they handle the merging of the low Colorado and clipper-like 
lows with the ECMWF much slower (and wetter) with the system. 
Cluster analysis (GEFS, ECS and CMC) have about 23% of the members 
favoring the deterministic ECMWF solution while the remaining 
members fairly evenly spread across solutions favoring either a more 
northerly track and/or faster (drier) solutions. Thus quite a bit of 
uncertainty remains at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A disturbance moving through this evening into tonight lowers CIGs 
to MVFR and ushers in isolated rain showers. Coverage and 
probability of rain was too low to include at CMX/SAW (~20% chance 
or lower), especially given no VIS restrictions are expected. IWD 
may see periods of IFR CIGs tonight prior to the forecast time of 
11Z Sunday when more persistent IFR CIGs are expected. This should 
improve back to MVFR by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise generally 
southerly winds around 5 kts are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Light southerly winds of 20 kts or less continue through early next 
week as high pressure ridging largely dominates. Monday night into 
Tuesday low pressure will track north from Colorado to MN with an 
associated warm front lifting across the region. Southerly winds 
will increase up to 30kt over the eastern part of Lake Superior and 
20-25kt over Northern Lake Michigan. For the western half of Lake 
Superior winds will be around 20kt. Winds shift westerly 15-20kt 
behind a cold front Tuesday night (stronger 20-25kt over the eastern 
part of Lake Superior) and eventually turn northerly on Thursday. 
Warm, moist air and widespread rainfall could result in dense fog 
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...77
MARINE...NL