Mad River Mountain

000
FXUS61 KCLE 221800
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is now a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms from our central and eastern Ohio Counties points
east into Northwest PA this afternoon and evening. Increased 
rain chances outside of the "snowbelt" Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to
develop and then move east-southeast across the area this
afternoon and evening. Some storms may turn severe with pockets
of damaging winds the main risk. Isolated hail and locally 
heavy rain are secondary threats. 

2) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and
start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers
will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA
late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers
or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 

3) Outside of lake-enhanced showers, a period of dry and
tranquil weather is expected the first half of the week. The
next potential weather maker brings chances for showers and
a few storms late Wednesday and primarily Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
The combination of a low-level trough axis and modest warm air/
moisture advection has been fueling some thunderstorms early
this morning, primarily over Lake Erie but extending southwest
into parts of North Central OH as of 3 AM. While this activity
is generally favored to lift east-northeast and diminish this
morning, it may still be on the scope as the rest of the world
awakens, particularly over and close to Lake Erie. While it may
not be an entirely dry morning given this activity, greater 
shower and storm potential, including a risk for some strong to 
severe storms, awaits until the afternoon and evening hours. 

Aloft, a shortwave will dig into the central Great Lakes today
into tonight while taking on a neutral to slightly negative
tilt. This will encourage a weak surface low to slowly deepen
while drifting out of northern Michigan and into southern
Ontario late today and tonight. A pre-frontal trough is still
expected to cross the area this afternoon and early evening from
west to east, with a strong cold front arriving in Northwest OH
late this afternoon and surging southeast across the area
through this evening. Large scale forcing for ascent will
maximize late this afternoon and evening as a vort max rounds
the base of the deepening shortwave and rotates into the
northern OH/Lake Erie vicinity, though more modest forcing is
evident even earlier in the day. 

Showers/storms are expected to begin developing during the
midday or early afternoon timeframe, with activity peaking in
coverage, intensity, and organization during the late afternoon
and early evening. Showers/storms are expected to exit southeast
this evening with the cold front, with activity quickly
transitioning to lake-enhanced showers later tonight. Activity
will likely blossom along both the pre-frontal trough and a lake
breeze near the northeastern shoreline near and east of the I-77
corridor this afternoon, and across Northwest OH along the cold
front itself. Given the increasing forcing into the late 
afternoon/evening and multiple triggers for convection, it's 
likely that eastern portions of our area see the most widespread
convection and greatest overall rain amounts, with some areas 
likely seeing multiple rounds in quick succession. With that 
said, nearly all CAMs develop fairly numerous storms along the 
cold front as it pushes across our western counties, so odds are
that a large majority of the area will see a shower or storm 
this afternoon/evening on the balance. 

There is some potential for both severe weather and locally 
heavy rain with storms this afternoon/evening, though the
overall setup will not favor higher end convective hazards. 
Clouds and perhaps some ongoing shower/thunder activity will 
slow heating today, though weak to moderate, uncapped 
instability (1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE) is expected to develop 
through the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to around
8C/km. Some pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to modest 
DCAPE values in the 500-800 J/KG range. These marginal 
thermodynamics, coupled with increasing forcing and modest deep-
layer shear values of 20-30kt, can support loosely organized 
convection. The primary severe threat today will be locally 
damaging winds, most likely with any small lines or clusters 
that evolve but also possible with any more intense cells. 
Isolated large hail is also possible, mainly with any updrafts 
that exhibit transient rotation which is most likely within 
storms along/east of the pre-frontal trough where surface flow 
will be more backed. While the overall lower-end environment and
potential for storms to quickly get "messy" and work over the 
atmosphere puts a lid on severe potential today, most CAMs have 
quite a bit of convection across our area with some organization
depicted, giving the SPC confidence to introduce a Slight Risk 
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather for much of the area east of 
the I-75 corridor (and a Marginal/level 1 of 5 for I-75). 

In terms of heavy rain potential, storm motions from the west- 
southwest will be fairly parallel to the incoming cold front, 
so the potential for multiple rounds and/or transient training 
does exist. Precipitable water values and warm cloud depths are 
not especially concerning for efficient rain-rates, though we 
will need to monitor portions of Northeast OH/Northwest PA for 
repeated storms or training convection that can still drop 
localized 2-3" rain amounts. Otherwise, area-average QPF will 
generally be in the 0.25-1.00" range through this evening, least
across Northwest OH and greatest across Northeast OH/Northwest 
PA. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for 
excessive rainfall/localized flash flooding across Northeast OH 
and Northwest PA in their latest excessive rainfall outlook.

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the
surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great
Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to
stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly 
fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- 
northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The
seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and
lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/
upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the
weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain.
850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into
early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as
500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. 

Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the
overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west-
northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake-
enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast
OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will 
cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely 
causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect
showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest 
PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for
several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent 
vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the 
northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another 
uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast 
of Lake Erie from as far west as the Islands and Sandusky points
east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest 
of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and 
evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through 
at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ 
enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will 
likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized
later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A 
possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and 
trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick 
in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. 

In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over
the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake-
enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday
night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest
fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly
favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk 
across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up
(especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers
are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will
need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or
Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain
amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore
form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with 
cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any 
thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ 
evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially 
over and downwind of Lake Erie. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected
to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of
the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting
late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed
above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the
week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound
towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected
to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This
will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its
associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may
arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most
favored on Thursday with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide today,
especially along and east of I-77 where multiple rounds of
storms are likely this afternoon and evening. IFR and lower
conditions with reduced visibilities are likely with any
thunderstorm today.

SPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for
this afternoon and evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts up to
50 knots are possible within the strongest storms, along with
hail up to 1 inch in diameter. These hazards are likely to be 
isolated in nature and there is a low probability of impact to any
terminal directly.

Scattered rain showers and MVFR ceilings may linger across 
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight, becoming more
reserved to Northwest Pennsylvania tomorrow.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through 
Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated 
thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast 
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine weather conditions on Lake Erie will become rough and 
not ideal later tonight and continuing through late Monday.
There is a round of strong storms over the central basin of Lake
Erie this morning that will track eastward through Sunrise.
Gusty winds up to 35 knots and isolated waterspouts could be
possible with these early morning storms over the lake. A cold
front will approach Lake Erie from the west late this afternoon
and move across later this evening. Winds ahead of the cold
front will be from the south to southwest 10 to 15 knots today
and waves of 1 to 2 feet. Scattered strong to severe storms will
be possible again this afternoon and evening with the frontal
passage. Winds will shift around from the west to northwest
tonight 15 to 20 knots and continue Sunday through Monday. Waves
will increase 3 to 7 feet later tonight and those rough
conditions will likely continue Sunday through Monday.
Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie starting tonight
and lingering through Monday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach
Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued late 
tonight through at least Monday morning. These headlines will 
more than likely need to be extended later into Monday with
future updates. High pressure will slowly build in Monday into
Tuesday with nicer lake weather conditions returning by Tuesday.
By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 
knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through 
     Monday morning for OHZ009>012-089.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011>014-
     021>023-032-033-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through 
     Monday morning for PAZ001.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday 
     for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...Kahn/Saunders
MARINE...77