Alpine Valley

000
FXUS61 KCLE 312343
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have introduced slight chance PoPs to western portions of the
area to account for the potential of very light rain showers
through early this evening, but otherwise no changes needed with
this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will continue to influence the area into the start 
of next week allowing for quiet weather and gradually warming 
temperatures. 

2) Periodic showers are possible early next week before becoming 
more widespread mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Latest radar (as of early this afternoon) places portrays
showers across the western half of the area, although dry air 
near the surface will likely prevent the vast majority of the 
precipitation from reaching the surface. Nonetheless, some very 
light rain showers may periodically occur west of I-71 through 
early this evening so have introduced slight chance PoPs for the
next several hours. Otherwise, Halloween will remain dry and 
mostly cloudy with temperatures generally falling into the 40s 
and lower 50s tonight. The only exception will be mid to upper 
30s across interior eastern Crawford/Erie counties in PA. High 
pressure will gradually shift east through the rest of the 
weekend and early next week, providing dry weather and gradually
increasing temperatures through Tuesday. Tuesday will likely be
the warmest day of the week with high temperatures in the 70s 
expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A pattern shift is expected for mid to late week as the
aforementioned high shifts east and a low pressure system
approaches from the west. Showers may sneak into northwestern
zones as early as late Tuesday, but guidance generally favors
dry weather until the low's accompanying cold front nears the
local area early Wednesday. From there, periodic showers are
likely as the front crosses the CWA through Thursday with
additional scattered showers possible as a secondary cold front
moves through on Friday. As far as temperatures go, temps in the
70s will likely continue into Wednesday before dropping back
into the 60s for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly overcast skies will continue through the TAF cycle, but
bases will be VFR, averaging 10 thousand feet. Brief sprinkles
could impact KFDY and KMFD this evening associated with a
strip of mid-level moisture, but very dry air in the low-levels
will keep most areas dry thanks to strong high pressure centered
over Pennsylvania.

Except for a lingering lake breeze this evening at KERI, winds
will average E to SE at 4 to 8 knots tonight and Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain on Tuesday night into 
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will generally be out of the south/southeast at around 10
knots or less through the remainder of the weekend and likely
into Monday. By Tuesday night, the approach of a cold front 
will allow offshore winds to increase to 10 to 20 knots. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed if winds trend higher, but the
southerly flow will focus any higher waves into the open waters.
Winds will diminish throughout the day Wednesday with onshore
flow developing behind the cold front at some point Thursday.
Will need to keep an eye on the wind and wave forecast for late
week; as of now, winds will likely remain between 15 and 20 
knots which would result in waves of 2 to 4 feet, but any 
increase in winds may necessitate Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...15