Afton Alps

000
FXUS63 KMPX 312323
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers taper off this afternoon. Patchy
  drizzle develops tonight.

- Widespread soaking rain Monday into Tuesday. AMounts of 1-2"
  expected, approaching 3" across west-central Minnesota

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered rain showers continue to spread northwards into
central Minnesota & western Wisconsin this afternoon. These
showers will begin to wane as the low level warm advection
diminishes through the day, expect rainfall amounts of 
0.1-0.25" wherever showers occur. We looks to be dry, but damp, 
for trick or treaters this evening with areas of drizzle then 
developing late tonight & through the overnight hours. Gloomy 
skies look to stick around through Sunday with little change in
the airmass expected to scatter out the clouds, however a few 
peeks of sunshine looks possible later in the afternoon. 
Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s despite the 
clouds, as southerly winds & warm advection strengthen through 
the day.

The main weather of note this week comes Monday into Tuesday
when a deep trough digs over the intermountain west & spins up a
surface low tracking from the central plains into the upper
midwest. Legacy physical models vary somewhat on the track of
the surface low, but the AI GFS & ECMWF solutions have remained
consistent with the low tracking directly over our area from 
eastern SD into Lake Superior. This would place the favored 
location for the heaviest rain across the eastern Dakotas into 
west-central Minnesota, a solution well-supported by the AI &
physical-based ECMWF ensembles. This will be a very wet system 
for early November with near-record precipitable, helping to 
generate a widespread soaking rain event for the region from 
Monday morning through at least Tuesday morning. Widespread 
rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected across the entirety of 
Minnesota & western Wisconsin, with the best chances for 2-3" 
occurring across west-central Minnesota. Most of this rain will
fall within a few hours Monday morning & afternoon, but we're 
not expecting convective rainfall rates capable of any flash 
flooding. Heading into Tuesday, the system does slow down & 
linger over the Upper Midwest although models remain spread on 
how long the light rain in the wrap-around region sticks 
around. AI solutions we could have lingering showers all the way
into Thursday, although additional rainfall amounts late 
Tuesday into Thursday will only be on the order of 0.25-0.5". 
Would be a great snowstorm in another November, but we'll settle
for continuing to chip away at our precipitation deficit for 
2026.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the upper 50s to low
60s through the heaviest rain Monday afternoon, then we'll see
several days of classic November weather arrive as a colder
airmass settles over the region behind the system. Highs in the
mid to upper 40s will prevail into the weekend, along with
warmer lows in the upper 30s to low 40s as clouds looks to stick
around the the week. Conditions look dry well into next week once
we clear out the lingering showers Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The stratus deck and areas of fog show no signs of abating in
the short term for the start of the period, with AXN/RWF/STC
having the best chance for significant visibility reduction even
down to IFR/LIFR due to fog through the first 6-10 hours of the
period. Terminals farther east will be dealing with mainly MVFR
CIGS with limited visibility impacts due to mist. The last of
the -SHRA is moving out of the area with -DZ possible, however
more than likely ends up as a light mist that struggles to drop
us below 6sm visibility for the most part. Category wise MVFR
with periods of IFR is expected through 12z, at which point the
eastern sites will see CIGS rising towards VFR with decks going
SCT for MSP/RNH/EAU by the end of the period.

KMSP...We expect to remain MVFR and gradually improve throughout
the period, with the only chance for IFR being the first hour or
so before CIGS start to rise. Guidance shows lowering clouds and
CIGS returning very late in the period as -SHRA becomes possible
after the period ends, so left it out for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR. SHRA. Wind SE 10-15G30 kts. 
TUE...MVFR. -SHRA likely. Wind SE bcmg NW in aftn 10-15G20 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH